FBI probe could impact races in 2018 and beyond

Jeff Burlew
Tallahassee Democrat
Mayor Andrew Gillum speaks during a city commission meeting at City Hall on Wednesday.

The FBI’s investigation into Tallahassee redevelopment deals could have major ramifications for politicians up and down the ballot in 2018, including Mayor Andrew Gillum and his bid for Florida governor.

A day after news of the investigation broke late last month, Gillum announced he’d spoken to the FBI and was assisting in its investigation. He also said the FBI assured him he was not a focus of the probe.

But political experts say that won’t stop the GOP — if not opponents from his own Democratic Party — from trying to turn Gillum into the poster boy for the FBI’s investigation, fairly or not.

“It gives your opponent great political ad material,” said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida. “At this point, it’s survivable. But the more it lingers, the more of a problem it becomes.”

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The Gillum campaign acknowledged the FBI investigation was not exactly welcome news. But a senior campaign aide said Gillum and his team were unbowed by the probe.

“Let's not pretend the investigation is helpful, but we're not distracted by it,” the aide said. “We're talking about the issues and fighting the battles that matter, like protesting against the Republican health care bill this past week at a sit-in at the Capitol. People ask the Mayor about protecting their health care or finally rebuilding an economy that works for them.”

It’s unclear whether the FBI investigation played any role in the departure last week of three of Gillum’s top advisers, including campaign manager Phillip Thompson and deputy campaign manager and finance director Brice Barnes. 

The campaign didn’t say why they were bowing out, but it credited Thompson and Barnes with raising $1.2 million in Gillum’s first three months on the trail and putting him “on the path to success.”

Their departure came as the campaign was preparing to release its fundraising figures for June. In May, the campaign posted modest numbers, though it said Gillum had taken time off the campaign trail to be with his newborn son. The campaign said Friday it wasn’t ready to release hard figures from June.

“But we continue to be thrilled by the thousands of regular Floridians who have contributed their time and money to the campaign,” the senior aide said.

MacManus said Gillum has backers who are willing to stick with him and enjoys strong support from constituencies including minorities and progressives. But she noted the FBI investigation comes at a crucial, early point in the campaign when the candidates are trying to shore up support.

Susan MacManus, professor of political science at the University of South Florida.

“Right now, it’s a problem because it’s affecting people’s willingness to give money and volunteer,” she said. “And that’s the stage we’re in right now — the stage of getting your volunteer corps committed and getting the money, because it’s going to be a competitive race.”

The FBI investigation is just the latest stumbling block for Gillum and his gubernatorial ambitions. 

His use of taxpayer-funded software to send email with political overtones through City Hall servers is the subject of a Leon County Sheriff’s Office investigation that’s expected to wrap up this month. And last month, the state released annual stats showing Leon County with the highest crime rate in the state for the third year in a row. Most of the crime occurred in city limits.

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“These things don’t help, for sure,” said Aubrey Jewett, associate professor of political science at the University of Central Florida. “If you add them all up, they definitely hurt his campaign coming off the block.”

Aubrey Jewett, associate professor of political science at the University of Central Florida.

The FBI investigation became public June 22, about a week after the FBI served two subpoenas demanding records from the city and the Community Redevelopment Agency. The FBI specifically requested emails and other documents involving eight local business people and more than a dozen of their corporate entities

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Among individuals named in the probe were Adam Corey, an owner of the city-backed Edison restaurant and a former Gillum campaign treasurer, and Paige Carter-Smith, executive director of the Downtown Improvement Authority and a longtime business associate of City Commissioner Scott Maddox.

Fallout in other races?

It’s possible the FBI investigation could cast clouds over other local races next year and beyond. No elected official or government staff person was named in the subpoenas. But all five city commissioners and four of seven county commissioners serve on the CRA oversight board.

Scott Maddox, who was re-elected to the City Commission last year, has already filed to run for the state Senate in 2020. However, he’s also said he’s considering running for mayor next year, given Gillum’s gubernatorial run.

City Commissioner Scott Maddox during a meeting at City Hall Wednesday, June 28, 2017.

Incumbents up for re-election next year include City Commissioners Nancy Miller and Gil Ziffer and County Commissioners John Dailey, Kristin Dozier, Nick Maddox and Bill Proctor. All but Dailey serve on the CRA.

Jon Ausman, the longest serving Florida member of the Democratic National Committee, said the FBI investigation is most damaging for Gillum, because it comes at the same time he’s pursuing statewide office. But he said others could be tarnished if the probe uncovers wrongdoing.

Jon M. Ausman

“If the FBI actually draws a conclusion that inside dealing or trade making was done to benefit actual people,” he said, “then everyone on that oversight board, it’s their responsibility. And they cannot escape it.”

Political upstarts and other possible candidates appear to be seizing on the FBI investigation.

William Schack, a food services director at the local homeless shelter who’s running against Miller, blasted local officials for approving “ridiculous” CRA projects in the past.

“Sorry, it’s too late to cry foul now,” he said in a Facebook post Thursday. “Time to remove these commissioners from office and change our local political landscape. You have a new choice in 2018. It’s time!!”

John Paul Bailey, a former city police officer and city commissioner, suggested he might run again in Facebook comments he posted after news of the investigation broke.

Former Tallahassee City Commissioner John Paul Bailey.

“After reading the paper this morning, maybe I do need to run for the City Commission again,” he said. “It looks like they need a retired law enforcement officer up there to keep them straight!”

Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or follow @JeffBurlew on Twitter.