Hurricane Matthew models predict one-two punch
Some forecast models show Hurricane Matthew pummeling the east coast of Florida, taking a turn out into the Atlantic and then returning to potentially make a second landfall.
While a two-fer from the powerful Category 3 storm is daunting for some to imagine, weather officials in Tallahassee are cautioning forecast models more than five days out are far from an exact science.
More cause for immediate concern, said Tallahassee meteorologist Kelly Godsey, is that Matthew will travel up the east coast of Florida without making landfall.
“We feel very confident about the storm getting close to or even inland on the east coast of Florida,” Godsey said. “But if the center of the storm stays off-shore, it’s not going to weaken very much if at all.”
The average error for models 5-days away from landfall are about 200 miles, Godsey said. Weather officials are continuing to run multiple forecast paths to try and get the best prediction.
“Imagine how big that error can be by day seven or day eight,” Godsey said.
Models Wednesday morning show that Matthew could kick out into the Atlantic after making landfall by the end of the week. A ridge of low pressure sweeping in from the Tennessee Valley, coupled with a high-pressure system that could act as a lid on the northern progression, could pull the storm with it as it heads east.
Evacuation notices are being issued up the coast of Florida as officials prepare for storm surge and raging winds as Matthew follows the Gulf Stream.
“The big threat in the short term is the east coast of Florida,” Godsey said. “We‘ve got to watch it and we’ve got to pay attention to it and see what it brings in the week ahead.”
Contact Karl Etters at ketters@tallahassee.com or @KarlEtters on Twitter.
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